Tourism forecasts between 2020 and 2028

Client: OECS

Date: 2020-2021

Country: Caribbean Region

In collaboration with the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Foundation and as part of our contribution to R&D in the context of COVID 19, we have developed a prospective study in terms of demand and main source markets in the Caribbean.

This study includes factors such as the expected evolution of the pandemic in the different markets, the impact of income and the confidence factor as base indicators to structure the analysis.

The results obtained facilitate decision-making in terms of strategy and marketing based on data, and represent a step forward in market intelligence applied to the tourism sector.

The methodology involves:

  1. Building up the baseline scenario with structural time series analysis.
  2.  Estimating the epidemic dynamics and the re-opening dates of the market with SIR (susceptible – infected – recovered) models.
  3. Estimating the tourism demand decrease due to negative income shocks.
  4.  Estimating the tourism demand decrease due to lack of confidence in traveling.

As a result, evolution predictions are made by market and type of traveler (air, cruise, yacht).

The application of this methodology allows incorporating a new proper Know-how for destinations to structure their marketing strategies for the coming years.

Logically, these data need to be updated and monitored to introduce the news for the next few months.